Owner's Market (Some people won)

[NickCrash]

On 21/1/2018 at 3:12 AM, Alisae said:

End Day Update is as follows

 

2-shot Ninja - 0$
2-shot Watcher - 300$
1-shot Neighbourizer - 101$
2-shot Gravedigger - 201$

Given both Neighbourizer and Gravedigger had the same +1$ in the end, I bet the same person got them. 

[Daniel Blackworth]

I'll be rereading after I'm done with stuff and share my reads.

 

@NickCrash Don't player only bid for one role per day phase?

[Guest Sparkin']

Great minds think alike, some say. No rule ever said that you had to input a number with 0s.

It's possible that the blackened group has also done that to take the role. Let's not forget that any role can be bought by anyone, no matter their side.

[Daniel Blackworth]

@Venus You know what, the person I first thought of who could have done that would be you. Did you?

[Guest Sparkin']

Heh, I knew peeps would be busy biding for those roles so I decided to be idle.

[Guest Sparkin']

Just so we can all get informed, and I don't think it's been specified anywhere, @Alisae how many blackened players are there?

It's never been mentioned before, if I remember correctly

[Alisae]

Go Read Sample Role PMs

( 3 )

[Chickens]

what have i doneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee to get this treatmentttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt 

[Daniel Blackworth]

Dead
6. Jace Stormkirk - TOWN
11. sosobean - TOWN

 

Living
1. Venus - TOWN
2. Newt - MAFIA
3. Alistair - TOWN
4. LykosHand - MAFIA
5. DigitalAmber - TOWN
7. Amine Chankey3ft7 - MAFIA?
8. Lord Drakyle - TOWN
9. NickCrash - TOWN
10. Meteor Admin Divergent - TOWN
12. Bazaro - TOWN
13. Paul25 - MAFIA?

 

Those are my reads for the moment.

Yesterday's events have been instrumental in allowing me to formulate an amendment of my reads.

 

First and foremost, I think that Newt is actually mafia. Why?
(1) He wanted to be Marketplace Owner. Other players such as Venus and Bazaro wanted to be Marketplace Owner too, but his' stands out the most because it couldn't work if it was anyone but him. This smells fishy, but the more fishy thing is that he got support relatively easily which could indicate the scum partners' support.
(2) While he was close to being lynched, he claimed mafia. This seems uncharacteristic of what he would do as town wherein he would try to defend himself logically.
(3) Jace flipped inno. There was a change of votes between people. I think that mafia rided on this vote to save him as he was close to getting lynched.
(4) The items for today are suspicious. They seem to be pro town but I think that as town, he could do better like having the auction detective. Having those other roles seems like avoiding a check on who bought the roles on D1.

 

On the other hand, I think that Lykos is mafia. He joined the election for Newt relatively easily without any doubt and he hasn't been proactive unlike his town counterpart. Similarly, he voted after Newt in the bw on Jace. This seems like a last minute jump to save him.

 

As for the last mafia, I think it could be Amine or Paul. Amine has been sheeping rather easily and the last minute vote on Jace is suspicious considering he was there at the start of the game. Paul, on the other hand, seems sheepish, and has provided little contribution which is unlike him.

 

That said, Lynch: Newt

 

I believe we should spend on those roles and bid so as to not allow scum to take those roles away.
 

Also, sosobean, someone who voted for Newt so early is dead. I believe he was eliminated early to avoid such an unpredictable threat to Newt.

[Guest Sparkin']

Great minds think alike, some say. The list looks almost like the same that I did 2 days ago. (The only diference is Amine)

 

I'm fine with lynching Newt, but my survival instinct tells me that there's something weird with DIve's post.

 

It's impossible for the blackened group not obtain any role they desperately need. They have +300€ than all hopefuls. I don't even need to say that they could use it to obtain the detective role with no effort, meaning that Newt probably thought about that.

[Daniel Blackworth]

@Venus Perhaps they're similar, but I genuinely believe that Newt is mafia.

 

I've been checking the vote tally difference from V1.3 to V1.4 and the statistics seem to indicate Newt's scumminess.

 

Newt was almost getting lynched, but a chance popped up when they realized that they could go for my suspicion on Jace and be safe from his death. Also, notably, sosobean and Jace, the two of those people voting for Newt are dead.

 

Yes, I've been reading another version of Owner's Market in Mafiascum and it's true they could outbid anything they desperately want, but I think we can make them have a run for their money by choosing to not have minimal bids as such that they cannot easily gain roles we could potentially need.

[Guest Sparkin']

I see. Well, that's all the evidence needed to lynch Newt then. I was gonna vote him anyways

Vote: Newt

[Paul25]

May your soul Rest in peace, Sosobean :/

We lost an another vanilla townie.... :sadblob:

Anyway, I'm back to discussions

Well, I said that I'll be viewed as a potential scum after defending Newt and here's what I thought.

Tbh, I don't find any definitive piece of evidence to lynch him as he appears to be a perfect town in my opinion. What he claimed, is just a FC. [That's what my conscience says] Furthermore, he claims that as he was hopeless and sure to get lynched by the players. Almost all the players thought that he is obviously not a town and a Mafia thus he just wanted to finish this matter of being called as a Mafia by getting himself lynched. Ironically, he seems to have been saved somehow and on the same day we lost another townie whom I actually thought a Mafia A.K.A Jace.... R.i.p  

Why am I disapproved almost all time?

[Daniel Blackworth]

@Paul25 Reads on other players please thanks

[Paul25]

My reads are as follows:
1. Newt: [Potential Mafia]
Newt's assurance of putting this items are as follows:
1-shot Day Vigilante
2-shot Doctor
1-shot Cop 
2-shot Watcher
But, for some reason he betrays us which we find at the beginning of this day phase.
Alright, I'm agreeing with you that he is not a Town now. Seems scum-ish 

However, this statements presented by Newt is what I'm sceptical about:
''This is the 3rd-4th time that you lynch me on D1 right? In all of them I was town. I wonder when you guys will start making good decisions.
No I'm not trying to make reverse psychology. Please, lynch me. I can't wait to see your stupids reactions after you make the same mistake for the 3rd time. I will never get tired of this''

Moreover, He later apologizes for his wrong demeanor
Therefore, I'm not sure now whether he is a Mafia or an innocent town.
Nvm for the wrong read b4.

 

2. Venus [Potential Town]
Practical and sensible about all his opinions, too hard to be considered a Mafia.
The following statements are well presented by him:
''It seems we're misunderstanding things.
We're supposed to choose the Marketplace Ower as a team, not just put our selfish desires to be leaders in front of it.
Besides, being Marketplace Owner does not give you a role, it only means that you are going to choose the roles that will be on auction.
Therefore, RNG'ing it is definitely not a good move. Mafia may as well bring their powerful roles to auction.
My sole purpose is to benefit us all, with the exception being the mafia.
I propose us to form a strategy to use the Marketplace Owner's position to bring solely town roles, and not have any mafia roles to auction. 
This is my campaign.
 Elect Venus for a better Owner's Market.
Thank you for reading.''

 

It'd consume much of my time, If I continue at this rate. So expect for a few or no statements.

Making good contributions towards town so he is definitely not a scum.

 

3. Alistair [Potential Town]

 

 Dedicates himself towards the whole game and makes very well opinions regarding Do's and Do not's
 An example quote from him:
 ''Any Marketplace Owner would probably avoid choosing mafia-ish abilities for auction anyway, because they know that would make them look scummy if they did. Who the Owner is matters rather little actually, as long as they feel sufficiently pressured to not do anything that would hurt the town.
If Venus feels up to it, sure, wynaut. But the same goes for Newt or anyone else stepping forward really.''
Townread on him, then

 

4. Dive [Potential Town]
Reads and wrties about everyone who certainly is Mafia and who is not.
Also, some other gr8 contributions are made by him.
Therefore, I'm inclined to beilieve that he's not a Mafia

5. Lykoshand [Potential Mafia]
 Weird post at the beginning of the day phase, as it's been considered by most of the players.
 No essential contributions made, related to the topic.
Anyway, Not sure whether he is a Mafia or a Town but he is a Town. [According to my conscience[

6. NickCrash [Potential Town]
 Not a whole lot contributions, but he at least presented a theory which many players hadn't
 I don't consider him to be a Mafia

7. Me A.K.A Paul25 [Potential Mafia]
Stays silent almost all time, unworthy attempt to divert the lynch towards a town member. Appears to be defending Newt, which may be his ally and gets  mafiaread by most of the players. No contributions made related to topic and is really bad at stating anything.
 However, I'm only thinking that I seem like a scum for not presenting any sort of suggestions :/

8. Amine [Potential Mafia]
 Agrees to the players with electing Newt, Votes Newt iirc and later changes his vote which sounds like a scum and an ally of Newt.
Fragile contributions made by him on the other way round but I'm not sure as well, If he's a Mafia or a town. May be a Mafia.

 

I'm aware that I haven't included a few others in this discussion. I'll read about them later on and try to present my opinions about them. Also, I'll put my vote later. For now gtg

omg worthless opinions.

Edited January 22, 2018 by Paul25

[Guest Sparkin']

Can't expect me to trust you just because you wrote a wall of text, but I'll let ya know if I find anything suspicious about you.

Y'know what that means if I don't say anything about it

[Paul25]

Continued:

9. Bazaro [Potential Town/Mafia]

 Sounds Neutral. Can't be detected by his demeanor whether he is a Town or a Mafia.

10. Lord Drakyle [Potential Town/Mafia]

Likewise, he sounds neutral as well and is too hard to be viewed as a Mafia or Town.

This is the end of my petty reads, thanks for reading anyway.

 

[Anime]

My fragile contribution is not a new thing, its always like this in all games i play

i'm VERY forgettful and i barely post, thats why im taking a break from playing until exams are over.

also Im not sure how to defend myself, its always like this for me..

[Lord Drakyle]

So I read through the events and discussion until now, I cannot say for certain if Newt is mafia or not though for some reason some part of me just doesn't like something about him I just can't place my finger on it quite strongly through my own views, that said here is a hypothetical course of actions a mafia marketplace owner might seek to take though incredibly difficult to ensure it goes their way:

 

They maintain 'neutral' things to be auctioned, stuff that the town can use and the mafia would be mostly uninterested in, once enough days have passed wallets will be small and the bids made by mafia to outbid others would be easier that said they can also make bids that start incredibly high on the 'neutral' stuff in order to force the town to really open their wallets to get that stuff that isn't going to be as useful as what they want and when they plan to have it out on display.

 

Just my initial thoughts on the matter.

 

 

Also with Newt's assurances of certain items appearing i'll toss it into the old two handed grinder:

 

On one hand: I agree this seems scummy of Newt, possibly ditching the items bad for town to have for the mafia and quietly putting other things in that the town may think are a blessing because they remember seeing mention of them promised and possibly don't re-confirm what was promised, if my above theory on how a mafia marketplace owner might act we could assume this falling in line with the play Newt is trying.

 

On the other hand: I have to disagree and say that perhaps given how easily mafia can outbid us if they wanted to that Newt was waiting for one or two dead mafia members before he drops the items we the town want into the auction possibly putting as many good roles as he can in one go later when less mafia can get at them allowing for the town to have a better shot at finding mafia and forcing the scum players to pick exactly what they think they will need most and can let the town have.

 

 

Overall though, without Newt explaining himself or his actions I just don't feel I can trust him as a marketplace owner or as a player and therefore after taking the time to write out this post have solidified my decision on this:

 

[Eliminate] Newt

 

@Newt Gonna have to provide a reason for why I or anyone else in the town should continue to trust you, a good one at that.

[Newt]

Hey guys, I enchanced the following items: 1-shot Day Vigilante, 2-shot Doctor, 1-shot Cop, 2-shot Auction Detective. @Lord Drakyle I don't have to provide a reason of why I am town. You have to provide a solid reason of why I'm mafia. Everything everyone said about me until now has only been assumptions, without any proof and for no reason at all.

 

Btw, I elected Alistair as the co-owner, so if I die he is going to be the new owner.

 

 

 

 

[Alistair]

Hi everyone, sorry for not posting earlier, I missed a bunch of things, trying to catch up

 

Thanks @Newtfor naming me as your heir, although that could paint a target on my head idk, it's not too important.

 

I'm kinda iffy about considering Newt suspicious, I see several people do, I can understand but we kinda lack elements going that way imo. Although his "you have to provide a solid reason" defense to claim being innocent does sound a bit weird. But idk.

 

I agree with the suspicions on Lykos, I feel he hasn't been his usual town self during this game. If anyone ever happens to grab a NA that could be used to check his alignment, I encourage its use.

[Lord Drakyle]

This is why the trust in you is frail Newt, yes all it is right now is mainly assumptions and a lot of mistrust which means you don't need anything concrete just reasons why FOR trusting you rather than AGAINST which refusing to do anything to change our opinions and saying we need to do everything is not helping you at all.

[Lord Drakyle]

This is why the trust in you is frail Newt, yes all it is right now is mainly assumptions and a lot of mistrust which means you don't need anything concrete just reasons why FOR trusting you rather than AGAINST which refusing to do anything to change our opinions and saying we need to do everything is not helping you at all.

[Newt]

Well, I guess there is no escaping this one. Btw, I don't choose what items will appear, I just choose the items that will have greater chances of appearing.

And before I die, I just wanted to say one thing. Don't think that you guys can read me that easily. I'll never act the same in different games.

[Eliminate] Newt

 

Scumreads: Dive, Venus, Amine.

[NickCrash]

That's right actually. The owner's picks increase their chances to appear up to 400%. This doesn't mean he chooses the 4 items for us to auction, but that the pool is made wider.

 

For example.

If we have 8 items and 1 slot to pick from the chances are:

 

Before the owner picks items. The pool from which they are RNG is: A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H (item A has a 1/8 chance of appearing)

If the owner picks item A, the pool becomes A, A, A, A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H (item A has a 4/8 chance of appearing)

 

If I did the math right, the chances are 97% that at least 1 of the roles picked by the owner are put into auction

But only 3% that all roles picked by them are put into auction

 

 

More in-depth analysis

 

For all of them to appear, we have the following chances.

a. 16/29 for at least one appearing in slot A

b. remove 3 more from the role that got buffed up to 400% and got picked so it's 12/25 for another to appear in slot B

c. same as above 8/19 for slot C

d. same as above with 4/15 for slot D

 

16/29 * 12/25 * 8/19 * 4/15 = 3%

for at least 1 appearing

 

In our case we had 4 slots and 17 items.

Without being picked, an item has the random 1/17 chance of being picked (5.8%)

For an item @Newt chooses, it gets the chance to appear at least once:

Newt chooses items A, B, C and D so the pool gets 17+3+3+3+3 = 29 items to choose from

 

Each of those has a 4/29 chance of appearing in first slot (13.7% for each).

 

This means, not any of those appearing in the first slot is 100 - 4*13.7 = 45.2%

 

Assuming none of those got lucky, it means 1 other random role got in. So we have 4/28 for each (14.2%)

This means, none of those appearing in the second slot is 100 - 4*14.2 = 43.2%

 

Once again for 3rd slot: 4/27 (14.8%)

100 - 4*14.8 = 40.8%

 

Last time for 4th slot: 4/26 (15.3%)

100 - 4*15.3 = 38.8%

 

For none of the roles to appear in the slots, we'll need: 45.2% * 43.2% * 40.8% * 38.8% = 3%

 

So there's a 97% chance at least 1 of those enters the auction. It's technically given.