Dragoknight

So then. It seems we were right on getting Dive as the werewolf. And it seems we lost someone now...... Yeah, I really don't know what to make of Hypurr, but considering yesterday's reads I am fairly confident he is an evil role. Although his behavior so far kinda makes me feel he may be jester... That does sound plausible. The no mafia part that is, at least not killing roles. I doubt they'd be inactive tho, but that would be good for us. I suppose this also brings up who was poisoned last night. As well as any others roleblocked. At least one is evil, yes? Since Mimi revealed herself as mayor, this is definitely a good read. Well, I don't see the point of hiding my role. I am the Lookout. N1 I was jailed, and I gave jailor-sama the safeword. N2 I visited Lykos and I saw Nicki visit him. N3 I visited Mimi to which no one visited. Fali showed up before on the reads, and now we have the reason why. [Trial] Fali

Hey, just because he's a "bad guy" doesn't mean he's a bad guy. [Guilty]

Not necessarily lost on me. I kinda just wanted to hear something from Hypurr. You know, we can have multiple trials in a day if the trial doesn't end in an execution. But as it seems, he has no interest in helping and we are limited in time at the moment. Your argument is quite sound, so I'll help out. I'd assume that's how it works. But it's not necessarily the same chance of a random lynch. Allow me to explain. For simplicity's sake, lets take Aldo's 2nd message first. "Nicki, Hyppur. At least one of them is good." In this scenario, since one is guaranteed good, there are only 2 possibilities. The 2nd (in no particular order) is good or bad. Thus, there is an even 50/50 on either, but only 1, being evil. Note that the normal probability of any one of us being evil is (number of evil roles present)/15. If there are less than 8 evil roles, this is an improved chance. As for Aldo's first message. "Daniel, Falirion, Hypurr. At least one of them is evil." Using Dive's claim, we can rule him as the one guaranteed evil. Thus, we are left with a simple scenario. If you are familiar with punnet squares, this should make sense. There would be a .25 chance both you and Hypurr are evil, a .5 chance only one is evil, and a .25 neither of you are evil. If we were to take the chances of either you or Hypurr individually being evil, then it would be the first scenario plus half of the 2nd, another 50/50. Now, to take Hypurr's odds using both visions, we would simply use an and or probability, taking the probability of A + probability of B - probability of A and B (as it overlaps A or B). .5 + .5 - (.5 * .5) = .75 To recap, we have: Nicki: .5 Fali: .5 Hypurr: .75 Thank you for coming to my statistics class. [vote] Dive

Yay, an undisturbed night after jailor-sama's abuse~ Yeah seems like a lot of things going on. Might as well break this down ig. Seems like a bit of an easy role to fall back on. So you can just survive to the end of the game with us, and you win when your target is killed? If I'm reading this correct (and from what others have stated) we can say Dive is the evil of the first message, but that doesn't exclude Hypurr or Fali from being evil. The 2nd message doesn't really give us as much information, but it seems it's a 50/50 that one of them is evil. It seems the chances are slightly stacked on Hypurr here being in both messages. Going with what Aldo says (and considering we can have multiple trials if we don't lynch them), I'll put this down for now. [vote] Hypurr

Wait is that how it works? I admit I was kinda skeptic of Aldo but after his claim, I suppose it's worth a shot. [Trial] Hypurr It's trial not trail. Although I can only imagine what the trail of seals would look like...

T-they chained me up and- and they didn't even take my safeword Yeah I can confirm it was the jailer from the fact there was a chat open. Strangely enough, the only thing the jailor said was "good vibrations " and 21 hours into the night, It seems to me like someone pretending to be Bean to not give away their identity to anyone just yet. A fair move on their part I suppose.

Guys. Th-the jailor locked me up and did bad things to me last night So we have 2 more additionally blocked here? I'm not sure how all the roles work, but from the looks of things, I think we have the escort/consort with those then. I don't really know how this pirate role works, or anything of fake messages, but ig this makes it pretty complex....

now where's my sticker saying "I voted"

hi I have no clue what I'm doing lemme at em oh boy I love wack sign me up~

Oh I'm always up for a good joke~ So, a perfectionist walks into a bar..... apparently the bar wasn't set high enough. I'll be looking forward to more puns for sure.

Okay. This is a loooooot of information to process at one time. So I got the gist of everything so far so let me give my thoughts to everyone..... Oh? I was mentioned. Funny. "It makes the most sense to me....." Evi, your speculations are becoming increasingly far fetched. The fact of the matter is, given the cult's presumed numbers, we must lynch a cultist and preferably the cult leader at that. I truly fail to see how any of Fali's actions can be interpreted as cult behavior. If you continue on this charade, it will most definitely lead to the cult winning. Unless that is what you want.... I do believe both you and I can see this is utter nonsense. All this tells us is that, as the cult leader, you hastily threw a vote on the next easy target to stomp mafia and get your faction a win. I had it confirmed, Evi's role switch was a result of day 3's lynch. And to quote Amine: Thus, it can almost be guaranteed that the cult leader recruited Evi during night 3. She was a non-culted role who was no longer Rika, so free real-estate. The fact that she so adamantly pushes this lynch makes it clear she knows Fali is a non-culted mafia. @mimi @Aldo @Anti-Loser @Astra125 @Valentine Kaden I implore you, if any of you are indeed not culted, vote Seal so we can end Oyashiro and his cult. [Eliminate] Seal

So this is a lot of information to process in one sitting. So this is where you want to end it then @Eviora? "She can switch her role with another player." There's no implication that this can fail, and then RNG'd among townies in the case of said failure. Maybe you did swap with Fali and are mafia right now. It would seem awful convenient given your situation. Another thing I would like to mention. Evi Crystal clearly claimed Kasai last day phase. But as we can all see, Kasai has been modkilled, and the role belongs to Cas. So then, what I believe. You are mafia Eviora. You successfully swapped roles with Fali, and are now trying to push this false narrative of a lynch on him to achieve your wincon before the cult can act.

This is certainly something. Evi is Kasai then? I'm not 100% sure what to make of it, but barring any counter-claim, I think I can take that. And then we have Eviora's statement. I've only played a few games with Eviora so I'm not sure what to make of it. Astra and Mimi bring up valid points about the possibility of her being Jiro or the cult leader, or just a blatant Jiro soft-claim as Fali states. I'm about as clueless on that one unfortunately. I think it might've been bait maybe? *sigh* just when things seem slow this game just seems to throw a curve ball out of nowhere Anyway, I don't really agree with this Mimi lynch so I'll go with my gut here and hope we can get something. [Eliminate] Eviora

crap I missed the phase change yesterday So then.. Evi's behavior seems awful suspicious here. I'm not exactly sure, considering this is only her second game and I'm not sure what would constitute as normal behavior, but I think it would be our best chance of finding mafia. I'm also not sure how to feel about Seal. He's usually about as inactive as he is now, but I can't help but feel his last vote was a bit too reactionary, possibly to try and cover for Evi. Yeah, it does seem quite strange to me. The Bean lynch felt really forced. I'm not sure what to make of Aldo, perhaps he felt lynching Bean was necessary at the time? I find Seal even stranger here. His vote seems really reactionary. I would like to hear from @Evi Crystal.

Yeah sorry I haven't been keeping up with the thread as much as I'd like to. I can't say I have a whole lot to say but I'm not too sure how I feel about yesterday's vote. Knowing Newt, I suppose just not checking up on the thread could be the reason though. Also I can't help but feel Bean's voting is a little more random than it usually is, but I'm not too sure.

So looks like it's almost the end and we don't have a whole to go off of. I'm not too sure lynching Nano is a good option here, but I'm not too sure about anyone else here either.... I guess I'll make one of these since it's still day 1. [Eliminate] Drago

oh hey I totally didn't forget this game was a thing Your fellow resident of Hinamizwa is here! Yeah I'm not to sure of what to make of the votes right now. I guess I don't really have any reason to not trust the claims, and given Nano being Nano, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt here. Also is it just me or does this whole insanity thing seem a bit threatening? Considering the Hinamizawa Syndrome, I feel like it would do something along the lines of forcing someone to randomly kill as a night action.

lol jk I'm in

No

Geez Nicki was right. Self-votes are boring. Mainly cuz I don't want to wrongly convict someone here. and also cuz everyone self voting makes it easy for mafia to blend in Yeah, as expected, there's not really a whole lot to go off of. Well, my first impression is that Amber's post kinda seems a bit odd. Seems a bit too hard on defending Lia. So I'll at least vote on that, [Eliminate] Amber

Hmmm.... I'm not entirely sure what to make of Newt's claim here. It would make more sense to visit Nicki and then announce cop when necessary. I don't really see the point of his claim... I like Mark's chaotic evil answer Regardless, I don't think lynching him would help us though. I'm not too sure the order would matter, as long as either the first or second person visited is Nicki. Also can't say I have a good guess at what some of the other roles might be, but your list makes sense.

calm down Nicki the server can only get so wet I'm in

no need to hide it we know what you 2 we're doing last night Newt Yay may Líewt rise again!

I feel like people are really sleeping on that Karen role.... may I talk to the manager?

I have no clue but this scenario sounds hilarious regardless. Everyone vote to lynch themselves! placeholder that may or may not change in response to future circumstances [Eliminate] Drago