Cult Wars 2 [Night 3]

[cicada]

2 hours ago, CrimsonDragon21 said:

Why would you roleblock me for real now?

[Jelly]

the drunk actually forreal blocking kiet is extremely funny lol

[NickCrash]

[Eliminate] Nicki

 

Those in favor of pushing the most voted people into a roleclaim please back up this vote.

Because of Arch's behavior, I believe that either Nicki or Lykos is the Blue Cultist

Naturally, this is not a solid accusation, and I'd much rather a Cop or a Dreamer could back me up on this one.

If one of them turns Blue, it's possible the other will as well.

 

Both spies are still alive. This means that they already know 2 of our roles. It's going to help them fakeclaim easily if we don't organize ourselves better.

 

Now, a little thought of mine in my Notepad:

 MOST BENEFICIAL MAFIA STRATEGY
N0: Recruit
N1: Turn recruit into apprentice
N2: Recruit
N3: Turn new recruit into assassin
N4: Recruit + First Kill

 

 If you stop seeing dead cultists, assume I'm converted. 

[Jelly]

i'll back it up

 

[eliminate] nicki

[NickCrash]

Correction: 1 (blue) spy is still alive. 

The Red Cult knows 1 of our roles

The Blue Cult knows 2 of our roles

Neither have found the Granny yet.

[cicada]

From my understanding here, jelly is trying to claim Cop or Dreamer, no?:

30 minutes ago, Jelly said:

i'll back it up

 

Prey tell why you would all insist on following up on this claim when he also "confirmed" that the Drunk did not visit Kiet on, I believe, N0? You'd only be able to do this if you were the Drunk yourself, or knew who the Drunk was and someone else watched the person the Drunk visited. I don't see any other explanation for this.

 

If you're just "backing up" to form a bandwagon, then I think it's safe to say you're a part of one of the cults. If you have any explanation for your "backing up", I'd love to hear it.

 

33 minutes ago, NickCrash said:

Because of Arch's behavior, I believe that either Nicki or Lykos is the Blue Cultist

This part confuses me. Like, all of it does. I have never played with Arch before, so I'm not fully aware of his play style, so I find it odd that this conclusion has been made.

 

29 minutes ago, NickCrash said:

Neither have found the Granny yet.

How do you know this? There's nothing in the flavour text of the posts to suggest they have or haven't found the Granny? This sort of implies that you might know more than what you are letting on.

 

38 minutes ago, NickCrash said:

If you stop seeing dead cultists, assume I'm converted. 

I think I know what you're referring to here.

 

Quote

I believe that either Nicki or Lykos is the Blue Cultist

Would you, perhaps, expand on this? Present your case for each of us, if you will, so that I can maybe understand your reasoning.

[cicada]

On 10/10/2019 at 1:39 AM, Jelly said:

i can confirm the drunk did not visit kiet

I'm just posting this since apparently I'm Reborn illiterate and can't post this in the same post as my previous message.

 

Just to prove I'm not making this up.

[LykosHand]

"Because of Arch's behavior, I believe that either Nicki or Lykos is the Blue Cultist"

@NickCrash Now explain how i could be the leader of that cult for Arch's behavior because looking at his posts, he didn't say anything about me or nicki to be honest. But still i'm curious about what you'll say 

[Sopheria]

so finding the cult leader doesn't end the cult...

 

@Jelly please please please please please visit alistair and don't stop

 

[Sopheria]

@NickCrash ill back you up

to end the cults, the apprentices should be eliminated too, i think

but we dont know who they are yet

 

[Eliminate] Nicki

[NickCrash]

1 hour ago, cicada said:

How do you know this? There's nothing in the flavour text of the posts to suggest they have or haven't found the Granny? This sort of implies that you might know more than what you are letting on.

I am a masked Vigilante, who has already killed The Watchmen.

No need to pretend that roleclaim wasn't obvious enough. The granny hasn't killed anyone yet. She still holds the shotgun close...waiting.

Granted, I got Astra by chance, but Arch's mannerisms indicated newbie mafia trying to cover up their tracks. 

 

I'm pretty tired right now to post a lengthy and well-structured response as to why I suspect you two. I promise I'll come back to this tomorrow. 

 

Now, as for why I'm doing this.

I believe the most beneficial mafia strategy to be the one I posted above. This means I still get 2 nights of free kills before they start hunting me (and other threats), down.

Getting me culted is a waste of nights. You know I'm no longer the vig, as soon as I stop killing. Thus I'll be lynched.

i) When against another cult, with fewer people than them, the win-rate drops

ii) With fewer people to cult, when the only cult remaining, the win-rate drops.

That of course doesn't mean we can't be extra safe and get me periodically trapped or healed from N3 on.

 

As indicated, demonstrated, and stressed by yours truly enough already, I want to play this game with Role Claims.

Since I've started the wagon on you, and am trying to put you on the hot seat, all you have to do is satisfy my curiosity.

The quicker you do that, the more time others have to counter-claim if need be. 

[cicada]

33 minutes ago, LykosHand said:

because looking at his posts, he didn't say anything about me or nicki to be honest

That is exactly why I'm confused about this point. There is nothing from him that suggests he was working with either of us.

 

I really don't like jelly's recent behaviour. He's tried to claim 2 different roles so far in this game, and I have a hard time believing he is either of them. He's also seemingly just blindly followed onto a bandwagon, and I'm really not for his seemingly contradicting behaviour.

 

[Eliminate] jelly.

 

30 minutes ago, Sopheria said:

ill back you up

It seems scummy that you're following on with what Nick has requested without a reason why. He could be a cultist or a cult leader.

 

36 minutes ago, Sopheria said:

please please please please please visit alistair and don't stop

This is basically handing both cults a sign that says "please do not visit this person". It would be wise you didn't affirm things like this if you care about town's victory.

 

 

I actually find it kind of amusing that people are trying to form a bandwagon when most of the players are inactive. Basically whoever starts the bandwagon has free reign over who gets lynched and who doesn't. Feels kinda cheap, doesn't it? Seems no matter what I do or say, there is no way out of this situation. I guess it would be a shame if town lost an additional 2 votes for lynching me.

[Jelly]

2 minutes ago, cicada said:

I really don't like jelly's recent behaviour. He's tried to claim 2 different roles so far in this game, and I have a hard time believing he is either of them. He's also seemingly just blindly followed onto a bandwagon, and I'm really not for his seemingly contradicting behaviour.

i actually havent claimed a single one yet 

 

 

[cicada]

6 minutes ago, Jelly said:

i actually havent claimed a single one yet

You've softclaimed Drunk, and seemingly implied being Cop.

[NickCrash]

Ok Nicki's claiming Mayor.

i) Do we have counter-claims?
ii) Can we tie the votes against what Nicki votes, so that we can verify if she still has the 2 votes? @cicada would you agree with this plan?

iii) If you have 2 votes, why feel cheap about a bw with 4 in total? It should be easy to turn it around. Simplest solution: go back to point ii and tie the lynch with Lykos. 

(or whomever else, really. All I need is a night target)

 

 

[Sopheria]

i think someone said earlier that roleclaims make the game too easy??

18 minutes ago, cicada said:

That is exactly why I'm confused about this point. There is nothing from him that suggests he was working with either of us.

 

I really don't like jelly's recent behaviour. He's tried to claim 2 different roles so far in this game, and I have a hard time believing he is either of them. He's also seemingly just blindly followed onto a bandwagon, and I'm really not for his seemingly contradicting behaviour.

 

[Eliminate] jelly.

 

It seems scummy that you're following on with what Nick has requested without a reason why. He could be a cultist or a cult leader.

 

This is basically handing both cults a sign that says "please do not visit this person". It would be wise you didn't affirm things like this if you care about town's victory.

 

 

I actually find it kind of amusing that people are trying to form a bandwagon when most of the players are inactive. Basically whoever starts the bandwagon has free reign over who gets lynched and who doesn't. Feels kinda cheap, doesn't it? Seems no matter what I do or say, there is no way out of this situation. I guess it would be a shame if town lost an additional 2 votes for lynching me.

nick said if cultists stopped dying he was culted, so i thought that meant he's still town

 

im sorry, i wont tell anyone to not visit someone

but jelly has to visit alistair

im not so sure myself if this is how it should be done, but i think it'll help us a lot

[Dragoknight]

Well it looks like we're deep in scum-hunting here.

I'm not sure I can add much for now, considering Arch was def suspect until it wound up he got shot. I think we may be onto something here with Nicki tho....

I have suspicions on Lykos as well tbh....   for now, I'll just lay here until a few more of the regulars post.

[LykosHand]

"nick said if cultists stopped dying he was culted, so i thought that meant he's still town"

@Sopheria I get what Nick says but unfortunately it's not entirely true, if one the cultist has made one of their allies an assassin, they could have the chance to kill the opposite leader so we'll still see cult leader die even if Nick will get culted.

Anyway i think it's too early to roleclaim, but if i see votes on me and it helps with proving that i'm not in any cult, so be it. I'm not afraid because i'm town

[Smooth]

Whelp so much for that pressure vote Kietorino. 

Honestly wouldn’t mind hearing the explanation to it. I’d figured it’s cause I was onto something about a converted drunk whiles you get scream getting roleblocked all day.

There’s really no way to prove that or not and that sucks well if you die for us.  I’ve always been weird whenever in my post. Always dependant on mood and here’s my post.

 

Roleclaiming already must’ve been some real pressure for Nicki. Regardless quiet an aggressive play on Nick’s part and using best of his deductions. Not to be underestimated.

Although claiming major on the hot seat is the stupendous decision any freaking cult member would’ve chosen. Something that could be proven straight up at the end day phase.

And these drastic reactions and post from minutes to Nick’s demands. Nicki could’ve patiently waited throughout the day until the right time somebody else were in the spotlight. Something feels forced here. Like she could actually be telling the truth as “Mayor” or indeed caught as cult... way too in the spotlight - “Blue Recruit” or “Red Recruit” perhaps.

I’m alright on the Lynch, just there’s other variables at play to start a speculation on. Plus if Nicki escapes lynch and leans cult, our vigilante here can swoop and execute her. Then she actually ends up being mayor.

 

 

@NickCrash An overall fine thought on how you generally picture the cult mafia’s beneficial strategy. But wouldn’t it be best to picture their strategy at their current state.

Also I know that I’m just repeating what you stated but thanks anyways + I get to do it in my way.

 

Blue Cults - Potentially 3-5 members alive. Only the their spy lives on.

Situation: Fine - Informed of 2 roles and 1 visit. Thoughts on their next objective: Pressuring potential suspects and finding the best solution to their win condition.

Speculation: Although rather alright and smooth calming, it’ll certainly soon before they bring on the storm⛈. They have a variety of opportunities to mess around with us town member. In fact, I’m certain the following night/day after, there’s gonna be some drastic trickery involved and gonna make it everything confusing as hell. Wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve already prepped their fake roleclaims ready. Their cult leader honestly can choose a different variety of decisions and plays that benefits them whenever. Perhaps getting enough number of recruit and then upgrade one of them into assassin. And just let the others do the rest as simply as that. Of course they would be smart about it. 

Remember this is just me spitting words outta my mouth.

 

Red Cults - Potential 1-3 members alive. Already lost both cult spy & watcher. 

Situation: Brutal - Informed of 1 role. Thoughts on their next objective: Looking for survivability and carefully thinking about who to convert to cult. 

Speculation: Are certainly in a desperate position no god damm doubt about that. I actually feel proud of myself being part of Bean’s elimination but seriously I believe their gonna let the opposing cult take stage. I can already imagine all them being Astra 1.0, Astra 2.0, Astra 3.0, Bean, and yada yada yada they dead. I wouldn’t mind agreeing that the red cult are indeed following Nick’s beneficial mafia strategy at all. They probably already having that apprentice by a long shot and will remain quiet a small cult for sometime. 

 

 

 

[Smooth]

Ahh yeah I forgot, my placeholder

Eliminate Kiet

1. I wanna wait it out too see the other inactive peepos’ thoughts

2. Eye for an eye

3. BAZ help, Kiet bullying me 

[Alistair]

If I'm not mistaken, as of now there are:

4 votes for Nicki (Nick, Nano, Jelly, Sopheria)

1 vote for A-L (Kiet)

1 vote for Jelly (2 if Nicki is Mayor)

1 vote for Kiet (A-L)

 

Ngl I do believe Nicki has been acting the most suspicious out of these 4. That being said, she claimed Mayor and has not yet been counterclaimed.

Nick's strategy to verify that she is indeed the Mayor is sound; I think we should create a tie between Nicki and the person Nicki voted, in order to "force" her double vote to be the decisive factor. In that case it means potentially sacrificing someone in order to prove her innocent, but in case she is indeed a cultist, it looks like a decent trade to me.

 

Therefore,

[Eliminate] Jelly

more so to make Nick's plan work out, than out of sheer belief that Jelly is cult.

 

[Caimie]

Hello jury, it has been a while since i have spoken about a case to you all, it may have taken me some time but i am finally ready to call someone to the stand!!!! 

 

I am bringing anti loser to the stand based on his message where he clearly shows he is upset & pissed off about the mayor claim. This makes it really easy to see that he was either gonna claim that himself, or he is pissed about his team mate claiming mayor!! This all depends on wether nicki is mayor or not however, nicki being innocent or evil, regardless of that outcome i believe anti is evil. He shows such an emotional card in his last message he basically showed all of us his cards, my gut tells me im spot on this time, actually having reasons to support my theory thia time u lije last game where i had the luckiest guesses. 

 

So my dear jury, i must ask you have to have faith in me one more time!

 

if i end up being wrong pls forget this post ever happened

[Caimie]

O i forgot to add this [Eliminate]  Anti-Loser

[Nano4]

Not being counter claimed isn’t proof, you could be the only one of your role but have been converted, so claims and counterclaims aren’t as helpful in a setup like this

[CrimsonDragon21]

On 10/11/2019 at 6:15 AM, Anti-loser said:

- Kiet claims of being role blocked - Jelly informing us about it being false - Kiet sudden reaction - Kiet tells us that this was a mistake - Bazaro confirms it

Something tells me there’s some whole story beneath this situation. And really from there... I’m just guessing whether the drunk got convicted or not (for me at least). 

Just from this message alone, you came off as suspicious in various ways. So why shouldn't i keep the pressure on?

 

13 hours ago, Dragoknight said:

Well it looks like we're deep in scum-hunting here.

I'm not sure I can add much for now, considering Arch was def suspect until it wound up he got shot. I think we may be onto something here with Nicki tho....

I have suspicions on Lykos as well tbh....   for now, I'll just lay here until a few more of the regulars post. 

Also Drago is making the most suspicious messages ever.

And noone is calling him out on that?

 

I don't like how everyone is just going with what Nick suggested.

Claiming Vigilante how obnoxious. Claiming here right now has no effect. You could be a Mafia Leader and converted the Vigilante last Nightphase and just take his role to make a good roleclaim, which will give you a lot of towncredit.

Everyone in your cult can just claim the roles of the people, who got converted (like Nano pointed out).

The only way to confirm what they claimed, is for them to die or for the Cop to investigate them, but that would just make him easy food for the Cult who still has a Watcher.

17 hours ago, NickCrash said:

Now, a little thought of mine in my Notepad:

 MOST BENEFICIAL MAFIA STRATEGY
N0: Recruit
N1: Turn recruit into apprentice
N2: Recruit
N3: Turn new recruit into assassin
N4: Recruit + First Kill 

Well it's not really the most beneficial. It's more if you like to play safe.

Imo the most beneficial Mafia Strategy would be:

N0: Recruit
N1: Recruit
N2: Turn recruit into apprentice
N3: Turn new recruit into assasin or recruit
It gives you and your team a wider variety on roleclaims and it gives you a higher chance of getting people who are not converted yet at the early stages.

 

On another note it seems like Sophie knows something about Ali, but doesn't want to elaborate on that.

I don't think it would be good to keep quiet about it, after already hinting at it.